The NIL era has directly correlated to less depth in the NBA Draft in recent years. More and more often, underclassmen are opting for lucrative college paychecks and a chance to improve their stock rather than settling for late first- or second-round compensation in the NBA.
Only 25 non-seniors (and non-international) prospects kept their name in the draft. When Tuesday's first round concluded around midnight, 22 had been taken. That leaves three prospects who passed up (significant) NIL checks and still didn't secure a guaranteed NBA contract.
Isaiah Evans, Sophomore, Duke
There probably isn't a stronger incentive for future prospects to return to school than what Isaiah Evans experienced on Tuesday. The Duke sophomore earned a green room invite and wore a $3 million brooch, only to watch 30 other players come off the board in front of him.
It was a brutal gut punch for a prospect whom many ranked somewhere in the 20-30 range (he is No. 30 on the FanSided big board). Evans should come off the board early on Day 2 and still earn a guaranteed contract somewhere, but the No. 31 pick last year — Rasheer Fleming, another non-senior who fell unexpectedly — earned a four-year, $8.6 million contract from Phoenix. That's a hair below $2.2 million annually.
Evans could've easily commanded north of $3 million from Duke as a proven sharpshooter and winner, all while potentially fortifying his first-round case for 2027 in a much weaker draft. The primary reason Evans fell? A thin frame and questionable defense, which can be a hard sell after watching OKC, San Antonio and New York bloody each other up late in the playoffs.
Meleek Thomas, Freshman, Arkansas
With the Suns trading up to select Arizona's Koa Peat at No. 30, Meleek Thomas became the only freshman to fall into the second round. Thomas generated buzz as high as the late teens in the days leading up to the draft, but he always felt somewhat vulnerable as a smaller scoring guard with real questions about his defensive makeup.
Still, the slide comes as a mild surprise and puts Thomas' decision to stay in the draft in a new light. It's hard to ignore the John Calipari factor, too: While Thomas probably had a spot waiting for him at Arkansas, Cal always has a couple five-star guards coming through the pipeline. With Jordan Smith Jr. and Abdou Toure already committed to the Hogs for 2026-27, it's not like Thomas was guaranteed a huge leap in usage in Fayetteville.
He could've received a hearty payday in the transfer portal, of course. Thomas was extremely productive in Darius Acuff's shadow last season. He's a gifted shot-maker with real twitch and wiggle as a ball-handler, which he might have weaponized more frequently as the cornerstone of a different program in year two. Instead, he'll be scrapping in Summer League and hoping to break through in an NBA rotation without any long-term guarantees.
Of these prospects, Thomas feels like the safest bet to have been a first-round pick in 2027.
Henri Veesaar, Junior, North Carolina
Henri Veesaar passed up a reported $3.5-4.5 million NIL offer from North Carolina and could've reached close to $5 million in the transfer portal, per CBS Sports. If he took the minimum $3.5 million from UNC, he would've made a hair more than the No. 24 overall pick. If he got $5 million in the portal, he'd be looking at more than the No. 16 pick.
Veesaar's decision to commit was understandable, but clearly questions about his slight frame and limited rim protection made him too vulnerable. He was incredibly impactful at UNC last season and could've really benefitted from playing in a pro-style offense under Michael Malone. Moreover, had Veesaar added strength and led the Heels back to the NCAA Tournament, he's looking at potential top-20 status in next year's draft.
At No. 27 on the FanSided big board, Veesaar was the highest-rated prospect to slip into Day 2. He shouldn't need to wait long, but he will be making less money and dealing with more uncertainty as a second-round pick than he would've as a centerpiece of the Carolina roster (or another roster) and one of the most touted centers in college basketball.
Veesaar has a lot of projectable traits that NBA teams covet. He's can stretch the floor. He's a smooth, coordinated finisher around the rim. He can deliver quick, accurate dimes on the short roll. He feels like an NBA backup at worst — and he still slipped. Which just goes to show that more and more prospects will probably duck the draft in the years to come. There's too much short- and long-term financial incentive to risk it.
More NBA Draft news and analysis:
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